In this interview with BNN, Ed Devlin talked about monetary policy and market conditions in Canada. When asked if the Bank of Canada’s decision to avoid the quantitative easing measures other countries have taken was the correct one, Ed Devlin stated that he believed their decision was wise. He reasoned that Canada is in a different spot in the consumer debt cycle and that cutting interest rates would hurt the economy in the long term. Ed also advised that the economy not be judged by one good quarter of GDP or unemployment, as those numbers are highly volatile and should be aggregated to understand a general trend. In his view the big thing to look at for Canada will be the effect on the Canadian dollar of other nations cutting interest rates: should it remain a bit weaker, it will give the Bank of Canada more time to delay cutting interest rates. In regards to investing in the Canadian economy, Ed stressed that markets were disconnected- while equities at the time were quite attractive, government bonds were not. Consequently, government rates might end up going higher or returns on equities might have to go a bit lower. Though the markets were uncertain, Ed believes that volatile market conditions can still be a good time to invest- provided that you figure out which part of the market will “overshoot”, then taking the other side.
Bank of Canada bucks the trend by resisting the temptation to ease
Sep 4, 2019